Sunday, May 8, 2016

Clinton/Trump (3): The Race as of May 8, 2016

The latest national polls give Hillary Clinton an average of a seven-point lead on Donald Trump. How would this affect the electoral map and control of Congress?
Here are the last six polls reported on Huff Post:

Throwing out the highest and the lowest scores (CNN Clinton + 13 and Rasmussen Trump + 2), the average of the remaining polls shows Clinton at + 7. This is the same margin that Barack Obama won by over John McCain in 2008 -- 52% to 45%. Here are the states that Obama won in 2008:

Several of these states went for the Republicans in 2012, when Obama beat Romney by only 3%, 51% to 48%. Here is the Electoral map in 2012:

A seven-point national margin for Clinton would put Missouri, North Carolina, and Arizona back in play for the Democrats, and would make Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, and Florida -- all of which Obama won by 5% or less in 2012 -- safer for the Democrats. 

In the Senate races in 2008, Democrats defeated five Republican incumbents and won three open seats previously held by Republicans, and in the House of Representatives Democrats gained 21 additional seats. Similar results this year would give the Democrats control of the Senate by a margin of 54-46, but would leave Republicans in control of the House by a narrower margin, 225-210. Should the Supreme Court strike down partisan gerrymandering next year, the most conservative estimate I have seen would give Democrats 9 additional seats in the House, resulting in a 219-217 majority.


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