Showing posts with label democrats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label democrats. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Science and Social Progress

There is now a sharp divide between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. That divide was not as evident in the 1950s when I was a little boy. My father was a Republican and my mother was a Democrat, but they were both liberals. They both supported civil rights and together they ran programs that brought foreign students to America and to our community. They both voted for Adlai Stevenson twice and they both enthusiastically supported Nelson Rockefeller. They had some conservative views, too. They both supported the Vietnam War until the bombing of Hanoi on Christmas day, 1972.

At the time there were liberal and conservative Republicans and liberal and conservative Democrats. Many people criticized this situation, taking the position that the political parties "did not stand for anything." Gradually, however, the two major politcal parties realigned. Strom Thurmond and the Dixiecrats walked out of the Democratic Convention in 1948, while Hubert Humphrey at the podium yelled, "Let them go!" Conservative Democrats who opposed the Civil Rights laws of 1964, 1965, and 1968 voted for Goldwater and Reagan and switched to the Republican Party while liberals and African-Americans left the Party of Lincoln and joined the party of Lyndon Johnson and Bobby Kennedy. Both parties became more ideologically fixed in their positions.

There is another shift that has occurred as well. It used to be that Republicans, on average, were more educated than Democrats. That was partly because Republicans were wealthier than Democrats. But that gradually began to change, and by the year 2000 the educational attainment of Republicans and Democrats was equal. Today there is a yawning gap, and college-educated persons are far more likely to vote Democratic. See CNN, Why Education Level Has Become the Best Predictor of How People Will Vote; Pew, Party Affiliation of US Voters by Race, Ethnicity, Education.

The shift in educational attainment as the parties became more ideolocially aligned is not a coincidence, because there is a deeper phenomenon that drives the ideological divide between liberals and conservatives. It is how we tell reality from myth, truth from lies.

Do you tend to believe anything that supports your point of view? Or do you demand that there be reliable evidence for your political beliefs? Can you tell the difference between fake science and real science, or fake history and real history? Do you understand statistics and the basic laws of economics? Do you know what to look for in evaluating the reliability of medical research or sociological studies? 

Were you taught to fact check? Were you taught to carefully cite reliable sources for your own work?

Here is a quick checklist for you to tell whether you believe in science or myth.

Are vaccines safe and effective?

Yes! Vaccinate your children! Get the COVID vaccine! Make sure that all of your vaccines are up-to-date! Don't believe the conspiracy theorists or snake oil salesmen who prey on your fears and who put you at risk! WHO, Vaccines and Immunization: Vaccine Safety

Is climate change real? 

Yes! Environmental scientists confirm that climate change is real, and it is getting worse. Anybody my age should know that first-hand - we shovel less snow, we plant earlier, and the robins and daffodils appear sooner than ever! NOAA, Climate Change: Global Temperature.

Are undocumented immigrants more likely than native-born Americans to commit crimes?

No! By every statistical measurement, not only are immigrants less likely to commit crimes, they are far more law-abiding than the average native-born American. Anyone trying to make you afraid of immigrants is spreading racist lies, just like the Nazis did against the Jews. Migration Policy Institute, Immigrants and Crime in the United States.

Do tariffs on imports help the economy?

No! Tariffs hurt the economy; they raise prices and reduce GDP. The laws of supply and demand prove that free trade is far more economically efficient than tariffs. Let every country work hard to produce something other people want and we will all be wealthier. The Budget Lab, The Fiscal, Economic and Distributive Effects of 20% Tariffs on China and 25% Tarrifs on Canada and Mexico.

Are gay and lesbian parents as good at raising children as opposite-sex couples? 

Yes! Dozens of studies on children's psychological development and educational achievement confirm that same-sex couples are just as good as opposite-sex couples at parenting. The only consistent difference is that the children of same-sex couples are, on average, more tolerant. Cornell University, What Does the Scholarly Research Say About the Well-Being of Children with Gay or Lesbian Parents?

Why is liberalism associated with higher education and belief in science? It is because increasing knowledge always calls the existing society into question. Liberals seek to change and improve society, while conservatives seek to preserve the existing society. 

In America before the Civil War slavery was justified by myth; abolitionism was supported by fact. Slavery is highly inefficient. Free labor releases people from the shackles of "ownership" and makes it possible for every person to reach their highest potential.    

After the Civil War the Progressive Era in America was fueled by scientific advances in Statistics, Sociology, Psychology, and Economics As a result we reformed our prisons, stopped demonizing and torturing the mentally ill, and empowered women. 

Just so in the present time liberal views are driven by further advances in those same fields as well as in Medicine and Environmental Science. We can now accurately predict what the consequences will be if we move towards a more inclusive society with freedom and equality on the basis of race, gender, religion, national origin, sexual orientation and gender identity. Science and math inform us that we should become a more caring society and embrace universal health care, universal education, and free trade in commerce. 

If compassion is not enough to convince you that no child in America should go hungry, then economics should. A nation whose children are hungry is far weaker than one who takes care of their children.

Stop relying on myth and tradition to support your political views. Instead embrace math and science, and consider what policies will lead to a better world.

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

What Should Republicans Do Now?

What can the Republican Party do to redeem itself from the racism, sexism, and xenophobia of Donald Trump? In a discussion on 538 entitled "Is This What It Looks Like When a Party Falls Apart," Nate Silver said,  "This isn't just a crisis of party leadership. It's a crisis of the party's voters." Trump is enthusiastically supported by about 40% of Republicans. Republican voters nominated Trump because of his racism, sexism, and xenophobia. He rose to political prominence by loudly proclaiming that Barack Obama is not a citizen and launched his presidential campaign by rudely calling undocumented Mexican immigrants "rapists." The vicious misogyny of Trump recently displayed on tape has been obvious throughout the campaign ("Blood coming out of her ... wherever."). Most Republicans are appalled by him, but what can they do? I have six suggestions for what they can do as individuals, but I'm not at all sure they can salvage the Republican Party.

Saturday, December 26, 2015

What Drives the Ideological Divide in the United States? Reason Versus Magical Thinking

Over the past fifty years the political parties have realigned demographically and ideologically. In general, conservative groups moved towards the Republican Party and liberals have become Democrats. For example, the Dixiecrats switched from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party and Evangelical Christians became politically active and joined the Republican Party; while conservationists and "good government" reformers abandoned the Republican Party for the Democratic Party. Conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans no longer exist in any numbers. Thus, today there is a sharp ideological divide between the parties, making it difficult to find common ground on issues such as climate change, health care policy, gun control, immigration, or same-sex marriage. But another difference has also arisen between the two dominant political parties in the United States: an epistomological one. Democrats, who in general seek to change the future, are increasingly drawn to science and economic analysis, while Republicans, who wish to preserve or return to what they value in the past, are more and more likely to depend upon various forms of magical thinking. Some examples follow.